Like STEPS2000, we too will try to "address USWRP's goal to improve the specificity, accuracy, and reliability of weather forecasts for disruptive, high impact weather, particularly for heavy precipitation, hail, and tornadoes" - (STEPS2000). Our approach will entail the use of pre-existing algorithms and building ones where there are not any in use today, or to refine data in a format that can one day possibly be used to produce algorithms with further research on that specific topic area.
This is a good time to collect data and have it available to compare to data collected from other studies and to do so while the focus is on the topic of atmospheric electrical processes. The synergism internally with in our working group and the synergism externally will only complement the work in progress. The collaboration and sharing of data and some resources is also a tremendous asset at this time. The internet in part and the advances in telecommunication makes this a prime opportunity for such a project to take place, with minimal effort in establishing overall communications infrastructure. It is also important to note the advances in computers, hardware, and software that are much more affordable and re-usable for other tasks following their respective use with in the confines of a given project. There is also a renewed interest in the area of lightning data and its uses in the operational arena beyond the basic current uses of such data (i.e. - mapping lightning, and in some cases its polarity).
It is interesting to note that three wet microbursts in the month of August 1999, in Muscle Shoals, Alabama, Harvest area of Alabama and Huntsville, Alabama, each created damage that was similar to damage one would see with a F0 - F1 Tornado, all three came with little or no warning, and only one case was known to have been observed by our lightning detection equipment that has been put in service to date. In atleast one of the cases families were displaced from their homes that were destroyed in the microburst. Despite the fact that one or two of these were caught live on Tower Cams, and the fact that over 18 weather capable radars were in the vicinity and a vast amount of other meteorological resources found below there was not a timely and accurate technique in place to provide a lead time warning to the affected area. It is equally important to note that Dr. Kevin Knupp of the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) in Huntsville and others, have worked with the Birmingham Weather Forecast Office (BMX WFO) on this very subject matter for several years now. In fact the BMX WFO has held several professional development seminars on mircobursts too - yet they still remain elusive as ever. It may be possible that cell based lightning data combined with other data such as radar, and rapid scan satellite data, LIS data from Geostationary satellites will lend a better understanding and more timely warning of microbursts and many other meteorological phenomenon.
Lightning activity increases and decreases can be to some degree directly correlated with updrafts and downdrafts, in some cases sudden lightning falls or drop off in activity occur tens of minutes prior to the onset of a microburst at the surface - however much more research needs to be done to find this correlation and to reduce the overall false alarm rates that such a technique would entail and the use of radar and lightning detection systems side by side in real time detection and warning will be of great interest not just to the area of microbursts.
The focal region for this study is North Alabama, Southern Tennessee, and Eastern Mississippi, in the counties of Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, Marion in Alabama. Alcorn, Prentiss, Itawamba, Tishomingo in Mississippi. Hardin, Wayne, Lawrence Counties in Tennessee. This will cover out to about 50 nm on each radial from the main communications center. The sensing equipment and computer infrastructure will be located in the Barton, Alabama area. There may be other platforms added at other locations between now and Spring 2003 for use in this study. Meteorological Data will be collected from radars, ASOS, Rain Gauge Networks, and other sources that exist in the geographical area of the study. Research Equipment unique to this study is listed in the table below.
Some Useful Links:
LIDIA Climatology
Forecast Applications Using Lightning
Data: Nowcasting! (A work in progress)
Power Point Presentation (This
was presented at the 2nd Annual Severe Storms Symposium at MSU (Jan 2003)
Instrument | Company | Mission | Data Output | Archive Capability |
LSU 2002(30)® with Version 7 Software | McCallie Mfg. | High Speed Sensor/ Counter to Count Lightning Strokes within range of the sensor and run the Lightning and Severe Storm Detection System Algorithm ® (LSSDSA) | Total Lightning and LSSDSA Output and Event Stroke Graph | IBM PC Files, Daily File |
LSU 2002(30)® with Version 7 Software | McCallie Mfg. | High Speed Sensor/ Counter: To Count Lightning Strokes within range of the sensor and run the Spectrum Analzyer | Total Lightning and Storm Spectrum data.. | IBM PC Files, Daily File |
Boltek Stormtracker with DOS Software | Boltek Corporation | To Map Lightning within 300 nautical miles on a Base Map and to Count the total lightning and Close Strokes respectively. | Total Lightning, Map Plot of Strike Locations and Cell Clusters | IBM PC Files, Daily File |
Boltek Stormtracker with Windows Software | Boltek Corporation | To Map Lightning within 300 nautical miles on a Base Map and to Count the total lightning and Close Strokes respectively | Total Lightning, Map Plot of Strike Locations and Cell Clusters | IBM PC Files, Daily File |
Boltek Stormtracker with Lightning/2000 Software™ V3 | Aninoquisi Software Design | To Collect Lightning Data and Plot Storm or Cell Location with an elongated
Octant and monitor Realtime Nowcasting Data on lightning activity. To monitor
total lightning graph and cell based lightning attributes and utilize a
wide range of alarms that will aid in maintaining attention to interesting
cells and their evolution and eventual reported storm behaviors. Using
Stormcell Identification table "like" parameters for each storm we can
monitor polarity shifts, 5 minute trends and other useful data including
the potential for significant hail.
A special Sorting process is used as well to better clarify the lightning data that is incoming. |
Nowcast Saved on the Fly, Daily Summary Text Reports, and Daily Archive
File. RAW Data will also be collected and written to CD and later analyzed
in post analysis with a very unigue Analysis Tool that is being built.
A RAW data file is generated for most events. |
IBM PC Files, Nowcast, Daily Summary, and Daily Archive, RAW Data file during actual storms. |
Sferics Detector | Astute Solutions | To measure Electromagnetic Radiation and collect pulse shape, pulse polarity, and relative timing between events of a burst (multiple pulses in a short period of time, and direction-of-arrival among other items still in development | Percentage of narrow pulse widths, Pulse polarity and widths components, Logarithmic plot of total and burst activity. Percentage positive events for burst and total activity. Timing factor change for the last three readouts (15 mins). The time-between-events timing factor. Range of percentage positive events for total activity across the peak. Range of percentage positive events for burst activity across the peak. peak direction limits , timing factor and burst polarity factors | IBM PC, Daily File
|
NEXTSTORM w/Boltek Storm Tracker Hardware | Astrogenic | To Collect Lightning Flash Data and to monitor storm cells as they are classified in real time as storms and their movement and intensity, as well as polarity trend data for each cell being monitored | Total Lightning Plot of strikes and their location, storm cell identification, movement and TRAC data regarding each individually identified cell or storm with polarity information as well. | IBM PC, Daily File, TRAC Files, date/timestamped screen captures, and other data as it becomes available. |
Other proposed platforms include Electrostatic Field Meter, Electric
Field Mill, Portable Lightning Tracker, Radio Telescope to look at Vertical
and Horizontal Lightning Components using a dual channel spectrometer /
interferometer. We may try to build other Detector(s) if time permits
and the resources are made available to accomplish this task. Also, external
datasets are welcomed for this project. It is also important to note that
the Sferics system will likely have an output that allows a second PC to
utilize data and combine it with other lightning data from other sources
creating in affect a users terminal that provides a comprehensive heads
up display for operational use, development of such a work station is the
next logical step in the process of understanding the data and finding
the means to utilize the data in an effective manner. The commercial interests
in this project will be creating further enhancements to their respective
products and software that will be utilized as well over the course of
the study.
Name | Organization | E-Mail Address | Webpage Address | Area of Interest |
R. W. "Dick" Fergus | Astute Solutions | rfergus@delphi.com | www.theramp.net/sferics | Atmospheric Electromagnetic Radiation as Related to Severe Weather and Tornadoes |
James McCallie | McCallie Mfg. Corp. | stormwise@topher.net | www.stormwise.com | Lightning Detection, Lightning Frequency and Electric Field Sensing |
Robert Boll | Boltek Corporation | rboll@boltek.com | www.boltek.com | Lightning Detection and Electric Field Measurements |
John S. Sturtevant | Metsource Meteorological Research Facility | met71@hotmail.com | www.fireline.org/sturtevant/ | Nowcasting using Lightning Signatures that are useful to Operational Forecasting |
Mark Mears/Charles Ryan | Aninoquisi Software Design | mmears@aninoquisi.com | www.aninoquisi.com | Development of Lightning Detection Software and Forecasting Algorithms |
Principal Investigator(s) | Proposal Title | Status of Proposal | Agency Submitted |
John S. Sturtevant | LIDIA (LIghtning Detection and Information Analysis) | Being Drafted |
|
Author | Proposed Title | Status of Paper | Submitted for Publication to: |
John S. Sturtevant | Forecast Applications Using Lightning Data: Nowcasting Hail, Microbursts, and Flash Flood Potential | Completed in 1999 | Not Submitted |
Charles Ryan, Mark Mears, John S. Sturtevant | Forecast Applications Using Lightning Data: Nowcasting! |
Paper in Progress | Work in Progress |
These individuals have expressed interest or provided comments useful to this project: Francis J. Merceret, Ph.D. - KSC NASA/ Weather Office, Stephen Hodanish - Electrification and Severe Weather Specialist - NWS Pueblo CO, Bard A. Zajac - Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training (VISIT) - Colorado State University - Fort Collins, Colorado, Prof. Nels Shirer - PSU, Dr. Greg Forbes - The Weather Channel
We thank everyone who has expressed interest in our project and hope you will continue to visit this webpage for future updates and news as well as how to get your own copy of archived data and any other information generated by this project.
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